{"id":77479,"date":"2026-08-30T17:19:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T17:19:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/fedwatch-turns-hawkish-with-57-odds-of-september-rate-increase\/"},"modified":"2026-08-30T17:19:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T17:19:44","slug":"fedwatch-turns-hawkish-with-57-odds-of-september-rate-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/fedwatch-turns-hawkish-with-57-odds-of-september-rate-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Fedwatch Turns Hawkish With 57% Odds of September Rate Increase"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">CME\u2019s Fedwatch tool puts a Sept. 16 federal funds rate (FFR) hike at 57%, versus just 39.9% on Aug. 21.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket and Kalshi price a Fed hold at 52%, exposing a razor-thin September split.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Warsh flagged 3.7% PCE inflation as traders brace for the Fed\u2019s September decision.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The real action is now centered on the Fed\u2019s Sept. 16 federal funds rate decision. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CME\u2019s Fedwatch Tool<\/a>, which turns federal funds futures trading action into implied policy odds, gives a 25-basis-point hike a 57% chance, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4%. Staying parked at the current 3.5%-3.75% range gets just 43%. Presently, there\u2019s a great deal of uncertainty, and right now, FOMC decision forecasts are no different than drawing straws.<\/p>\n<h2>Fedwatch Flips as September Hike Bets Catch Fire<\/h2>\n<p>The move becomes harder to dismiss when compared with where traders stood barely a week earlier. CME data put the probability of a hike at only 39.9% on Aug. 21. Of course, by Aug. 28, after the Jackson Hole speech, it flipped to 57%, while bets on a September rate cut had essentially been wiped off the board.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets have not completely bought the hawkish trade. As of this weekend, Polymarket traders put a Fed hold at 52% and a 25-basis-point hike at 48%. More than $66.6 million has changed hands on this particular wager, while the once-familiar rate-cut bet now commands odds of a measly 1%.<\/p>\n<p>On the prediction marketplace, Kalshi, traders are staring at nearly the same coin toss-style odds. It\u2019s September Fed market, carrying more than $23.8 million in volume, puts no change at 52% against 48% for a quarter-point hike.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-843396 size-full\" title=\"Fedwatch Turns Hawkish With 57% Odds of September Rate Increase\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1886\" height=\"908\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am-1024x493.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am-768x370.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am-1536x739.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/screenshot-2026-08-30-at-11-33-28-am.png 1886w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1886px) 100vw, 1886px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, another Kalshi betting contract gives the Fed a 67% chance of hiking the FFR sometime before 2027.<\/p>\n<h2>Warsh Puts Sticky Inflation Back in the Crosshairs<\/h2>\n<p>All of this data shifted massively after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/warsh20260828a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Warsh\u2019s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium keynote<\/a>, where he carefully avoided promising a September hike while repeatedly returning to stubborn inflation and the Fed\u2019s responsibility to bring prices under control.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere should be no misunderstanding: The Fed\u2019s price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target,\u201d Warsh stressed. He also made clear that short-term interest rates remain the Fed\u2019s main weapon for getting there.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers Warsh laid out explain why traders heard a hawkish message. The Fed\u2019s preferred 12-month PCE inflation gauge is running hot at 3.7%, while the six-month reading sits at an even spicier heat at 4.1%. Neither number is remotely comfortable beside the central bank\u2019s fixed 2% target. Although, some Fed critics believe that the 2% target will never be reached again.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh also described an economy giving the Fed little reason to panic about higher rates. Business investment is climbing rapidly, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/study-generative-ai-could-add-trillions-to-global-economy\/\">particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector,<\/a> S&amp;P 500 profits are up more than 20% over the past year, and real consumer spending has gained more than 2% over four quarters. Unemployment, meanwhile, remains at 4.1%.<\/p>\n<h2>Markets Stare Down a September Coin Toss<\/h2>\n<p>That mix is exactly what makes September uncomfortable for federal funds rate doves. A higher FFR cools demand and inflation, and an economy still producing solid growth and employment gives policymakers considerably more breathing room to tighten without immediately breaking the labor market.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh still refused to lock himself into a hike, saying:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The message was deliberate: Markets can handicap September all they want, but the Fed does not intend to hand traders the answer weeks before the meeting. For investors, September has become a genuine coin toss or fifty-fifty chance with real money behind both sides. CME futures favor a hike, while <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/igaming\/polymarket-pulls-nfl-contracts-certifies-bitcoin-bets-the-same-day\/\">the prediction markets Polymarket<\/a> and Kalshi narrowly bet on a hold.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/sticky-inflation-strikes-again-as-fed-faces-stagflation-trap\/\">Inflation and labor reports<\/a> now carry even more weight, and either could tip the scales before Fed officials meet in mid-September.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/fedwatch-turns-hawkish-with-57-odds-of-september-rate-increase\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways CME\u2019s Fedwatch tool puts a Sept. 16 federal funds rate (FFR) hike at 57%, versus just 39.9% on Aug. 21. Polymarket and Kalshi price a Fed hold at 52%, exposing a razor-thin September split. Warsh flagged 3.7% PCE inflation as traders brace for the Fed\u2019s September [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":77480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77479"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}