{"id":77641,"date":"2026-09-03T00:40:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T00:40:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/french-hill-highlights-clarity-act-as-2026-passage-odds-hit-15\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T00:40:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T00:40:49","slug":"french-hill-highlights-clarity-act-as-2026-passage-odds-hit-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/french-hill-highlights-clarity-act-as-2026-passage-odds-hit-15\/","title":{"rendered":"French Hill Highlights CLARITY Act as 2026 Passage Odds Hit 15%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 15% chance of 2026 enactment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi prices longer-term passage between 30% and 50%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">A Senate cloture motion on the bill ripens at 2:15 p.m. Sept. 15.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Prediction Markets Remain Skeptical of 2026 Passage<\/h2>\n<p>Washington\u2019s effort to establish national rules for crypto trading, custody, and market oversight now centers on the CLARITY Act. The House-passed bill would divide federal responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) while setting requirements for exchanges, brokers, dealers, disclosures, and customer asset protection.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction-market traders remain doubtful that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will complete the legislative process this year. A <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket contract on 2026 enactment<\/a> showed a 15% chance on Sept. 2 that the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would pass both chambers and receive the president\u2019s signature by Dec. 31. Trading volume reached approximately $11.62 million.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_844395\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-844395\" style=\"width:1054px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-844395\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Polymarket traders assigned the CLARITY Act a 15% chance of becoming law by Dec. 31. Source: Polymarket, Sept. 2, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The low probability contrasted with House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill\u2019s renewed reference to the legislation during a Sept. 2 hearing on growth, affordability, innovation, and access to capital. In his <a href=\"https:\/\/financialservices.house.gov\/news\/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411229\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prepared remarks<\/a>, the Arkansas Republican listed House passage of the CLARITY Act among the committee\u2019s accomplishments and called for permanent, predictable financial rules.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxcryptostructure\/crypto-market-structure\/kxcryptostructure-26jan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi\u2019s longer-term contracts<\/a> showed stronger probabilities, but they measure a broader outcome and cannot be compared directly with Polymarket\u2019s 2026 contract. Kalshi gave the CLARITY Act, or another qualifying crypto market structure bill, a 30% chance of becoming law before July 1, 2027, and a 50% probability before Jan. 1, 2028. Volume totaled approximately $6.85 million.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_844396\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-844396\" style=\"width:1209px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-844396 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kalshi-clarity-act-sept-2.jpg\" alt=\"kalshi clarity act sept 2\" width=\"1209\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kalshi-clarity-act-sept-2-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kalshi-clarity-act-sept-2-1024x457.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kalshi-clarity-act-sept-2-768x343.jpg 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/kalshi-clarity-act-sept-2.jpg 1209w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1209px) 100vw, 1209px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-844396\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kalshi traders assigned a qualifying crypto market structure bill a 30% chance of passage before July 1, 2027, and a 50% chance before Jan. 1, 2028. Source: Kalshi, Sept. 2, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The latest figures show that traders distinguish between an imminent Senate vote and completed enactment. By Aug. 31, the market had already <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/clarity-act-odds-stay-buried-as-senate-showdown-closes-in\/\">separated procedural progress from final passage<\/a>, with traders assigning strong odds to a Senate vote but much weaker probabilities to the bill becoming law during 2026. Polymarket\u2019s latest 15% reading rose from 13% but remained heavily weighted against enactment.<\/p>\n<h2>Sept. 15 Cloture Motion Becomes the Immediate Test<\/h2>\n<p>The next measurable step would be a procedural vote on the bill, which senators could hold as soon as Sept. 15. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.democrats.senate.gov\/2026\/08\/08\/schedule-for-pro-forma-sessions-and-monday-september-14-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">official Senate schedule<\/a> states that the cloture motion on proceeding to H.R. 3633 will ripen at 2:15 p.m. Cloture generally requires 60 votes, placing the bill\u2019s future on its ability to retain bipartisan support.<\/p>\n<p>The proposal has already demonstrated support across party lines at earlier stages. The Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633 by a 15-9 vote on May 14, moving it toward floor consideration. Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/pro-crypto-clarity-act-h-r-3633-passes-senate-banking-committee-15-9\/\">joined Republicans in supporting advancement<\/a>, although committee approval did not establish sufficient support for cloture or final passage.<\/p>\n<p>Senate negotiators subsequently released revised legislation combining work from the Banking and Agriculture committees. The updated CLARITY Act framework addresses SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, consumer protection, illicit finance, decentralized finance, intermediary oversight, disclosure requirements, and specified network tokens.<\/p>\n<p>The revised language creates another timing consideration reflected in the low 2026 odds. Senate approval of provisions differing from the House-passed measure could require further action before the bill reaches the president. The Polymarket contract pays out only if H.R. 3633 completes every remaining step by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>Hill\u2019s Regulatory Push Confronts the Legislative Clock<\/h2>\n<p>Hill placed CLARITY inside a wider economic program covering capital markets, housing, community financial institutions, and regulatory modernization. He stated: \u201cCommittee Republicans are working diligently to codify these reforms to make them permanent and predictable.\u201d The prediction-market probabilities indicate that traders see the remaining congressional calendar as a significant obstacle to that objective.<\/p>\n<p>The lawmaker did not deliver an extensive digital asset argument in the Sept. 2 statement, but he previously explained why he considers CLARITY essential. During a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/one-year-later-clarity-act-remains-stuck-in-senate-as-crypto-rules-stall\/\">July field hearing marking one year since House passage<\/a>, Hill compared stablecoin legislation without a crypto market framework to an incomplete communications system while the CLARITY Act remained unfinished in the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>Hill stated:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWe need CLARITY in place because of a key point I always make: if you have GENIUS and dollar-backed stablecoin, which President Trump signed into law last July, but you do not have a market structure bill, you have passed authorization to have a cellphone but no cell network.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The bill could affect centralized exchanges, decentralized platforms, brokers, dealers, token issuers, and customers. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/trading-and-investing\/trading-mechanics\/how-bitcoin-exchange-works\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Centralized and decentralized cryptocurrency exchange structures<\/a> raise different custody, compliance, and consumer-protection considerations that the proposed framework seeks to address.<\/p>\n<p>If senators take up the cloture motion on Sept. 15, the vote would provide the next direct test of the market\u2019s skepticism. Clearing the procedural threshold could improve expectations for Senate consideration, while failure would strengthen the 85% probability currently assigned to H.R. 3633 not becoming law during 2026.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/french-hill-highlights-clarity-act-as-2026-passage-odds-hit-15\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 15% chance of 2026 enactment. Kalshi prices longer-term passage between 30% and 50%. A Senate cloture motion on the bill ripens at 2:15 p.m. Sept. 15. Prediction Markets Remain Skeptical of 2026 Passage Washington\u2019s effort to establish national rules for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":77642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77641"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}