{"id":77741,"date":"2026-09-05T06:37:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T06:37:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/is-this-time-is-different-really-different-for-bitcoin-price\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T06:37:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T06:37:29","slug":"is-this-time-is-different-really-different-for-bitcoin-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/is-this-time-is-different-really-different-for-bitcoin-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Is &#8216;This Time Is Different&#8217; Really Different for Bitcoin Price?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin\u2019s \u201cthis time is different\u201d narrative keeps returning, but the broader cycle pattern remains intact.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">BTC drawdowns are getting shallower, while gains from cycle lows are also shrinking.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Greater adoption could change Bitcoin\u2019s long-term price dynamics beyond the patterns seen so far.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Since mid-August, analysts have started talking about the differences in this bitcoin (BTC) cycle more often again, looking for what has changed in the market. Once more, this chatter fits the usual pattern, seen across BTC\u2019s history and in attempts to understand this still-maturing market. Every time we heard that \u201cthis time is different,\u201d it usually was about a new type of buyer that would hold the ground and stop the next bitcoin price crash, finally finishing the four-year cycle story.<\/p>\n<h2>Bright Bitcoin Price Hopes Met Harsh Reality Every Time<\/h2>\n<p>In 2014, a poster on X said they felt that the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Bitcoin_Bear\/status\/460719449956294656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">critical mass had finally arrived<\/a> and \u201csomething feels different now.\u201d In that cycle, BTC crashed around 85%. Then, in 2017, \u201cWall Street\u201d arrived via futures contracts, and this was \u201cseen as a big step towards financial legitimacy of the digital currency.\u201d BTC fell by around 84%. In 2020-2021, Strategy (then MicroStrategy), Tesla, and other companies were buying bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstitutional adoption of #Bitcoin strengthens with the arrival of Goldman Sachs to the marketplace. This news should accelerate the plans of other major banks to offer Bitcoin services,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/saylor\/status\/1366467588830728200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Strategy\u2019s Michael Saylor posted in March 2021<\/a>. The price crashed by around 77%.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024-2025, there was a wave of buying bitcoin by spot ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies. Bitcoin went down approximately 53%. So far.<\/p>\n<p>Now, as the price is up around 25% in a month, we see \u201cthis time is different\u201d posts more often again, and the recurring trend is that drawdowns are getting shallower each time, as seen from the examples above.<\/p>\n<h2>The Price of Smaller BTC Crashes<\/h2>\n<p>This week, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, posted a chart indexing the price of bitcoin to 100 at each cycle high, showing the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/2095522090371743999\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">current cycle has a notably shallower drawdown<\/a> than previous cycles.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_844767\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-844767\" style=\"width:680px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/hrtko4uwsaab4vg.jpg?X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&amp;X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&amp;X-Amz-Credential=AKIARQKIT2TMMMMRJCO5%2F20260904%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&amp;X-Amz-Date=20260904T115651Z&amp;X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&amp;X-Amz-Expires=600&amp;X-Amz-Signature=2e4cfc87575edd30d475aa97598818bf8337217157c3057a429932bd216efc1b\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-844767\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin Price Cycle Drawdowns. Source: Galaxy Research<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Meanwhile, BTC analyst Willy Woo argued that bitcoin is <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/willywoo\/status\/2095412013711163430\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">moving from its four-year cycle to a 6-8-year cycle<\/a> as halving supply shocks weaken, becoming more aligned with TradFi short-term debt cycles.<\/p>\n<p>While the latter claim is impossible to prove yet, should BTC manage to stay above this year\u2019s lows, this would indeed prove that the price crashes have become less severe. However, there\u2019s another side of the same coin \u2014 BTC rallies have also become smaller.<\/p>\n<p>So far, in previous cycles, gains from the bottom to the next all-time high were roughly 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x. Hence, if institutional buyers and ETFs are the reason why BTC keeps falling less each time, they might also be the reason why it\u2019ll climb less in each cycle, if cycles in the bitcoin market still exist.<\/p>\n<p>Another bitcoin analyst, James Check, looking at BTC production costs by miners, recently also pointed out that while the bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/2095652032820748376\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">price floor is rising every cycle, the price ceiling has been more steady<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTops have approached the 32x multiple ($313k today), but if this trend of rising floors continues, eventually the floor meets the top\u2026and then s*** gets really weird!\u201d Check said.<\/p>\n<h2>This Time Is Different and the Same<\/h2>\n<p>Therefore, to summarize, what hasn\u2019t changed for bitcoin price is the pattern observed over the course of this market\u2019s history: new buyers are coming in, price rallies and then crashes, but both drawdowns and rallies are becoming smaller. Hence, in a way, from the perspective of the market structure and price changes, this time is different indeed, but the pattern has stayed essentially the same.<\/p>\n<p>Also, so far, it has all happened more or less on the same four-year schedule, while the market can\u2019t agree on whether the four-year cycle is dead or whether there are any hard reasons behind it besides its legend, which has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With each Bitcoin halving, when the supply of new BTC is halved, this \u201csupply shock\u201d has become so small that it can barely move the market.<\/p>\n<p>For example, bitcoin analyst Jesse Myers says that BTC may have just begun a 2-3-year bull market, which would be consistent with the four-year cycle legend. Myers admits that it\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Croesus_BTC\/status\/2095597977721004440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">harder to say where the next peak might be<\/a> (if that happens at all).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe last bull market delivered an 8x from the bear-market low. An 8x from this bear-market low ($58k) would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k\/BTC,\u201d the analyst concluded.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s Growing Pains and Recycled Hopium<\/h2>\n<p>However, the absolute majority of current bitcoin analysis is based on analyzing the market \u2014 buyers and sellers, capital rotation, charts, changes in global liquidity, etc. \u2014 or things that have little to do with Bitcoin as a network and bitcoin as an asset.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, as both mature, understanding and adoption improve (beyond BTC as an investable asset), this might become an additional catalyst that could propel the bitcoin price higher than the historically weakening rallies now suggest. In either case, the scale of understanding and adoption is still unknown, while multiple questions are still unresolved. These also include quantum resistance, BTC payments competition with other payment rails, and incentives for bitcoin miners to keep mining bitcoin, among others.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, while the market and the whole Bitcoin industry go through their growing pains (as it \u201cmonetizes, cycle by cycle,\u201d per Myers), we\u2019ll keep going through the pains of reading the same recycled themes from the past almost 18 years.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, you can already mute posts that include \u201cthis is the last chance to buy cheap \/ the window is closing,\u201d \u201cBTC as everyday mainstream money is imminent,\u201d \u201cbitcoin will flip gold soon,\u201d \u201cfiat collapse is imminent,\u201d \u201cthe supercycle incoming,\u201d \u201cnation-state adoption will cascade quickly,\u201d \u201cthis is the last chance to front-run institutions.\u201d None of that has materialized yet, and in that sense, nothing is different.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/opinion-and-analysis\/is-this-time-is-different-really-different-for-bitcoin-price\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Bitcoin\u2019s \u201cthis time is different\u201d narrative keeps returning, but the broader cycle pattern remains intact. BTC drawdowns are getting shallower, while gains from cycle lows are also shrinking. Greater adoption could change Bitcoin\u2019s long-term price dynamics beyond the patterns seen so far. Since mid-August, analysts have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362405,"featured_media":77742,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77741"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362405"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}