{"id":77823,"date":"2026-09-07T07:25:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:25:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ethereums-vitalik-bets-90-of-his-net-worth-against-an-ai-bitcoin-crash\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T07:25:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:25:44","slug":"ethereums-vitalik-bets-90-of-his-net-worth-against-an-ai-bitcoin-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ethereums-vitalik-bets-90-of-his-net-worth-against-an-ai-bitcoin-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethereum&#8217;s Vitalik Bets 90% of His Net Worth Against an AI Bitcoin Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Liron Shapira gave 50% odds on Sept. 6 that AI breaks Bitcoin\u2019s security and BTC falls 50%+ within two years.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Buterin replied Sept. 7 that a SHA-256 or proof-of-work break is a \u201ctiny\u201d risk and BTC can patch the rest.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">BTC trades near $80,000 after a Sept. 3 high of $82,239, so the call needs a print under $40,000 by 2028.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Wager on the Table<\/h2>\n<p>Liron Shapira, an angel investor who hosts the <a href=\"https:\/\/lironshapira.substack.com\/p\/debate-with-vitalik-buterin-will\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Doom Debates podcast<\/a> and debated Buterin on AI risk last year, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/liron\/status\/2096600525152113063\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">posted his claim<\/a> yesterday, stating:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>I claim (50% confidence) that BTC prices will crash 50%+ in the next 2 years because of AI undermining what people imagined were its security or robustness guarantees.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Buterin\u2019s answer landed about half a day later, where he noted he takes \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/VitalikButerin\/status\/2096771573529080252\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the opposite side of that (stance).<\/a>\u201d His reasons were that he is \u201cquite optimistic about cybersecurity in the long term,\u201d and sees \u201cthe primary problem as being getting the transition. Moreover, he expects \u201cBTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well.\u201d Upgrading clients and mining pools to deal with network-layer hacks falls into that category, he said, while \u201cthe probability of actual breaks on hashes or PoW is tiny.\u201d He closed out by saying:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are, I\u2019m basically taking this bet (I assume you believe the same re ETH) with ~90% of my net worth already.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>The Bet From Each Side<\/h2>\n<p>Shapira\u2019s claim is about perception as much as code. His phrasing targets \u201cwhat people imagined were\u201d bitcoin\u2019s guarantees, meaning the market could re-price BTC on fear of an AI-found flaw well before any flaw is exploited. On that reading, a 50% drawdown only needs a loss of confidence, not a broken hash function.<\/p>\n<p>Buterin\u2019s answer, however, is more of an engineer\u2019s, splitting the risk into two buckets:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bugs in client software<\/li>\n<li>Mining-pool infrastructure and the peer-to-peer layer, which developers and node operators can patch without changing Bitcoin\u2019s rules.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A genuine break of SHA-256 or proof-of-work (PoW) would require a hard fork and social consensus, and he puts that in the \u201ctiny\u201d bucket.<\/p>\n<p>In a separate thread the same night, he pointed to the speed at which new tricks for succinct proofs (SNARKs) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) have arrived \u201cparticularly in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He argued that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/VitalikButerin\/status\/2096768703559839995\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hard problems are abundant<\/a>,\u201d so cryptography keeps finding new footing as old assumptions erode. Ethereum\u2019s own roadmap, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/blockchain\/vitalik-overhauls-ethereum-roadmap-as-quantum-risks-take-hold\/\">overhauled on Aug. 10<\/a>, moved quantum safety to the top of the list for the same reason.<\/p>\n<h2>The Fine Print<\/h2>\n<p>Buterin\u2019s \u201c90%\u201d is not a fresh position but rather a statement that his existing holdings, most of them ETH, already lose if AI breaks the cryptographic assumptions both networks share. His parenthetical to Shapira, \u201cI assume you believe the same re ETH,\u201d makes the point, i.e. a hash-level attack would not stop at Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>As things stand, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles\/\">bitcoin\u2019s price sits near $80,000<\/a>, after hitting a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles\/\">three-month high<\/a> of $82,239 last week and stalling below an $80,335 to $82,239 resistance band over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>Whales are not positioned for it, as wallets holding 100 BTC or more <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-whale-accumulation-august-2026-cryptoquant\/\">added about 60,000 BTC<\/a> in August, per Cryptoquant, buying almost exactly what smaller wallets sold.<\/p>\n<div class=\"not-prose my-3 lg:my-4\"><a aria-label=\"Read Now: Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles\" class=\"block overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] no-underline focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-[#4169E1] focus-visible:ring-offset-2 flex flex-col md:hidden\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles\/\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"relative aspect-video w-full overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\"><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"absolute inset-x-0 bottom-0 m-0 p-3 text-xl font-bold capitalize leading-[1.17] tracking-[-0.4px] !text-white\">Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-2.5 px-1 pt-2.5 pb-1\">\n<p class=\"m-0 line-clamp-2 text-xs leading-[1.3] !text-[#67656E]\">At 9:30 a.m., bitcoin&#8217;s price was clocking roughly $79,750 to $80,100 per unit on Sept. 6, stuck in a tight\u2026<\/p>\n<p><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"flex items-center justify-center rounded-pill bg-[#4169E1] text-sm font-medium text-white h-[38px] w-full\">Read Now<\/span><\/div>\n<p><\/a><a aria-label=\"Read Now: Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles\" class=\"block overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] no-underline focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-[#4169E1] focus-visible:ring-offset-2 hidden md:flex md:flex-row md:gap-3 lg:hidden\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles\/\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex min-w-0 flex-1 flex-col justify-between gap-2\">\n<h3 class=\"m-0 line-clamp-3 text-xl font-bold capitalize leading-[1.17] tracking-[-0.4px] !text-[#1C1C1C]\">Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles<\/h3>\n<p class=\"m-0 line-clamp-2 text-sm leading-[1.3] !text-[#67656E]\">At 9:30 a.m., bitcoin&#8217;s price was clocking roughly $79,750 to $80,100 per unit on Sept. 6, stuck in a tight\u2026<\/p>\n<p><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"flex items-center justify-center rounded-pill bg-[#4169E1] text-sm font-medium text-white h-[38px] w-full\">Read Now<\/span><\/div>\n<p><\/a><a aria-label=\"Read Now: Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles\" class=\"block overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] no-underline focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-[#4169E1] focus-visible:ring-offset-2 hidden lg:flex lg:flex-row lg:gap-4\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles\/\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fbitcoin-price-faces-82k-wall-as-weekend-momentum-fizzles-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"flex min-w-0 flex-1 flex-col justify-center gap-2\">\n<p><h3 class=\"m-0 min-w-0 flex-1 line-clamp-2 text-2xl font-bold capitalize leading-[1.17] tracking-[-0.48px] !text-[#1C1C1C]\">Bitcoin Price Faces $82K Wall as Weekend Momentum Fizzles<\/h3>\n<p><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"flex items-center justify-center rounded-pill bg-[#4169E1] text-sm font-medium text-white h-12 w-[180px] shrink-0\">Read Now<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"m-0 line-clamp-2 text-base leading-[1.3] !text-[#67656E]\">At 9:30 a.m., bitcoin&#8217;s price was clocking roughly $79,750 to $80,100 per unit on Sept. 6, stuck in a tight\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/vitalik-buterin-bitcoin-ai-crash-bet\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Liron Shapira gave 50% odds on Sept. 6 that AI breaks Bitcoin\u2019s security and BTC falls 50%+ within two years. Buterin replied Sept. 7 that a SHA-256 or proof-of-work break is a \u201ctiny\u201d risk and BTC can patch the rest. BTC trades near $80,000 after a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":77824,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77823"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77823"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77823\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}