{"id":77861,"date":"2026-09-08T01:44:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T01:44:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-bull-market-setup-mirrors-2015-willy-woo-says-as-debate-grows\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T01:44:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T01:44:44","slug":"bitcoin-bull-market-setup-mirrors-2015-willy-woo-says-as-debate-grows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-bull-market-setup-mirrors-2015-willy-woo-says-as-debate-grows\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bull Market Setup Mirrors 2015, Willy Woo Says as Debate Grows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Willy Woo sees parallels between the current market and 2015.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Another analyst says his data shows no such decoupling.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Different calculation periods can produce sharply different readings.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bitcoin-Stock Split Revives the 2015 Comparison<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin market analyst Willy Woo argued Sept. 6 that BTC\u2019s relationship with stocks had reached its widest divergence in nearly a decade, potentially resembling an early stage of the cycle that culminated in the 2017 bull market. Woo <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/willywoo\/status\/2096581714797895823\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shared a long-term bitcoin-to-S&amp;P 500 chart<\/a> on X and wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s almost been a decade since the last time this happened\u2026 The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Woo expanded the comparison by describing 2014 as a period when stocks remained bullish while bitcoin experienced an uncorrelated bear market. He characterized 2015 and 2016 as a contrasting phase in which BTC engaged \u201cbull mode\u201d while equities chopped bearish, before both markets aligned in 2017. Woo added: \u201cIMO the setup looks similar\u2026 BTC liquidity continues to strengthen, while equities starting to show signs of fragility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>An <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-market-cycle-reflects-structural-similarities-to-2015-2018-says-glassnode\/\">earlier Glassnode-based comparison with the 2015-2018 cycle<\/a> identified similar retracement and capital-flow patterns, although it examined different metrics. Bitcoin\u2019s capacity to move independently partly reflects its market structure, including continuous global trading, a predetermined issuance schedule, and demand drivers that differ from corporate earnings.<\/p>\n<p>The network\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bitcoin\/basics\/what-is-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fixed supply of approximately 21 million BTC<\/a> also separates the asset from equity indexes whose values depend on company profits, interest rates, valuations, and economic expectations.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_845819\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-845819\" style=\"width:1638px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-845819\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Woo\u2019s chart compares bitcoin, the S&amp;P 500, and a long-term correlation series extending to 2010. Source: Willy Woo\/Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Analyst Challenges Woo\u2019s Decoupling Signal<\/h2>\n<p>The historical interpretation drew resistance from <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Darkfost_Coc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost<\/a>, who posted a separate chart tracking bitcoin, the S&amp;P 500, and their correlation coefficient from January 2020 through July 2026. Unlike Woo\u2019s chart, its latest correlation reading remained in positive territory. The analyst wrote, questioning the timeframe (TF):<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know how it\u2019s computed, but I don\u2019t see this right now. I think you used a high TF average but even this way it\u2019s hard to imagine, because there hasn\u2019t been a strong decoupling period in a while.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The counterchart showed the correlation coefficient repeatedly moving between positive and negative territory rather than entering a prolonged separation. Its most recent reading was below earlier peaks but remained above zero, supporting the argument that bitcoin and the S&amp;P 500 had not strongly decoupled under that calculation.<\/p>\n<p>Correlation measures how closely two assets\u2019 returns move together, but the result changes with the selected period, data frequency, and treatment of nontrading days. Woo\u2019s image identifies Glassnode as its data provider without displaying those calculation settings. Glassnode\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/charts\/tradfi.SpxOhlc?a=BTC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. stock market index series<\/a> carries daily data back to January 2009, and the index does not trade on weekends or market holidays, when bitcoin keeps trading.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier measurements illustrate how the chosen window can reshape the conclusion. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone cited a 200-day bitcoin-equity correlation near 0.5 on April 12, a moderately positive relationship over that longer period. The <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/strategist-sees-bitcoin-bear-signals-warns-crypto-bust-could-push-btc-to-10k\/\">long-term correlation reading<\/a> does not invalidate a lower recent reading; it incorporates months of earlier co-movement that a shorter calculation may exclude.<\/p>\n<h2>Recent Data Show a Shifting Market Relationship<\/h2>\n<p>Broader market conditions provide some support for Woo\u2019s concern about equity fragility, although they do not establish that the 2015 sequence will repeat. Grayscale recently cited record U.S. household equity exposure and elevated stock valuations in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grayscale.com\/the-stack\/digital-assets-can-help-diversify-equity-concentration-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">assessment of equity concentration risk<\/a>, arguing that concentrated portfolios could become more vulnerable to an equity-market reversal.<\/p>\n<p>Other correlation measures indicate that bitcoin has recently moved away from technology stocks while drawing closer to gold. Bitwise data showed bitcoin\u2019s 90-day correlation with gold moving above 0.5, while Glassnode data showed bitcoin\u2019s 30-day correlation with the S&amp;P 500 falling toward zero during the August rally. The <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-gold-correlation-six-year-high-bitwise-hougan\/\">changing correlation profile<\/a> supports the broader decoupling discussion without confirming Woo\u2019s specific historical comparison.<\/p>\n<p>Woo\u2019s bull-market thesis ultimately rests on more than the direction of one correlation line. It combines strengthening bitcoin liquidity, weaker equity conditions, and a perceived resemblance to the market sequence that began in 2015. Darkfost\u2019s counterchart shows why the selected timeframe remains central to determining whether that historical parallel currently holds.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-bull-market-setup-mirrors-2015-willy-woo-says-as-debate-grows\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Willy Woo sees parallels between the current market and 2015. Another analyst says his data shows no such decoupling. Different calculation periods can produce sharply different readings. Bitcoin-Stock Split Revives the 2015 Comparison Bitcoin market analyst Willy Woo argued Sept. 6 that BTC\u2019s relationship with stocks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":77862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77861"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}