{"id":77909,"date":"2026-09-09T02:11:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T02:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T02:11:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T02:11:20","slug":"bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Volatility at Historic Low as Long-Term Holders Dominate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Long-term holder supply explains nearly 19% of volatility variance.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Illiquid supply and liveliness rank second and third in the analysis.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Market capitalization accounts for approximately 3% of the variation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Long-Term Holder Supply Leads Glassnode\u2019s Analysis<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin was trading at $78,449.49 at the time of writing after falling below $79,000 following an unsuccessful attempt to remain above $80,000. Despite these short-term movements, Glassnode examined one-month realized volatility, which measures price fluctuations over the preceding month, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/2097260566628991231\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in a Sept. 8 post on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The analytics firm wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cBTC volatility is currently historically low.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Glassnode compared 13 variables according to how much of bitcoin\u2019s detrended volatility variance each explained. Detrending removes the longer-term statistical direction of the data, allowing shorter-term relationships to emerge. Long-term holder supply led at nearly 19%, followed by illiquid supply at approximately 12% and liveliness, a measure of older-coin spending activity, at about 11%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_845951\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-845951\" style=\"width:2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-845951\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Long-term holder supply explains the largest share of detrended one-month bitcoin volatility variance among the variables examined by Glassnode. Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Holder Concentration Shapes Trading Conditions<\/h2>\n<p>Market capitalization ranked near the bottom of Glassnode\u2019s comparison, explaining slightly more than 3% of the variation. Coin velocity, which measures onchain transaction volume relative to market capitalization, produced a similar result. Spot volume explained about 7%, while leverage, exchange balances, and futures open interest registered between approximately 8% and 9%. Bitcoin\u2019s longer-term volatility decline is also evident in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bitcoin\/basics\/bitcoin-as-an-asset-class\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">comparisons with traditional asset classes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode generally classifies coins held for at least 155 days as long-term holder supply. The cohort set <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-long-term-holder-supply-all-time-high-2026\/\">another all-time high<\/a> on July 21, extending a series of records after reaching approximately 16.64 million BTC, or about 83% of circulating supply, in June.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-long-term-holders-return-to-accumulation-mode-binance-sees-early-bull-market-signals\/\">Renewed accumulation by long-term holders<\/a> can reduce the amount of BTC available for active trading. The cohort has absorbed coins distributed by other market participants, shifting more supply toward holders statistically less likely to spend it in the short term.<\/p>\n<h2>Low Volatility Creates Two-Sided Trading Risk<\/h2>\n<p>For traders, the findings carry risk-management implications rather than a directional signal. A smaller liquid supply can moderate price movements while demand remains balanced, but it can also magnify price movements when demand changes sharply or dormant coins return to circulation. Funding rates, leverage, and futures positioning could then amplify the adjustment.<\/p>\n<p>Periods of unusually low volatility have preceded significant bitcoin price advances in earlier cycles, though the pattern has not produced a dependable forecast. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fidelitydigitalassets.com\/research-and-insights\/closer-look-bitcoins-volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fidelity Digital Assets examined bitcoin\u2019s volatility history<\/a> and classified those relationships as correlations rather than proof of causation. The current reading therefore describes recent price behavior without determining bitcoin\u2019s next direction.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Long-term holder supply explains nearly 19% of volatility variance. Illiquid supply and liveliness rank second and third in the analysis. Market capitalization accounts for approximately 3% of the variation. Long-Term Holder Supply Leads Glassnode\u2019s Analysis Bitcoin was trading at $78,449.49 at the time of writing after [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":77910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77909"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}