{"id":77925,"date":"2026-09-09T10:18:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T10:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/republican-senators-say-clarity-act-passage-odds-arent-looking-good\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T10:18:51","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T10:18:51","slug":"republican-senators-say-clarity-act-passage-odds-arent-looking-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/republican-senators-say-clarity-act-passage-odds-arent-looking-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Republican Senators Say CLARITY ACT Passage Odds Aren&#8217;t Looking Good"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Sen. Mike Rounds said negotiations \u201cdo not look good right now\u201d ahead of the Sept. 15 cloture vote.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket puts a passage this year near 15%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">A 60-vote cloture threshold at 2:15 p.m. ET decides whether the bill reaches the Senate floor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Sentence That Moved the Odds<\/h2>\n<p>For most of 2026, the CLARITY Act\u2019s problem was scheduling, but now it is the numbers. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., <a href=\"https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/article\/09\/08\/2026\/senate-republicans-say-crypto-bill-likely-to-fail\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">told Semafor<\/a> the bill has no path unless the administration engages on the one provision Democrats will not drop, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>If there\u2019s no interest in the White House in trying to bridge the gap on the ethics language, it is going to fail.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., was shorter and blunter, describing the state of talks as one that \u201cdoes not look good right now.\u201d Two Republicans publicly writing off their own party\u2019s signature digital asset bill, six days before a scheduled vote, is quite a telling sign.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_846120\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-846120\" style=\"width:769px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-846120\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Semafor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Democrats want language barring a sitting president and immediate family members from profiting from digital asset businesses while the federal rules governing those businesses are still being written.<\/p>\n<p>The White House says its current offer already amounts to the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history. Democrats counter that the drafted language does not sufficiently cover businesses controlled by a president\u2019s relatives, given the <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/trump-media-2650-bitcoin-crypto-com-transfer-2026\/\">Trump family\u2019s exposure<\/a> to token ventures and a bitcoin treasury vehicle.<\/p>\n<p>That gap has survived every attempt to close it. Sen. Bernie Moreno <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/moreno-signals-end-to-clarity-act-talks-ahead-of-cloture-vote\/\">signaled an end<\/a> to talks before the August recess. Majority Leader John Thune <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/thune-delays-clarity-act-vote-to-september-amid-senate-deadlock\/\">pushed the vote into September<\/a> rather than lose it outright in August.<\/p>\n<h2>Sept. 15 Is a Crowded Day<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/clarity-act-vote-is-set-for-sept-15-heres-what-happens-next\/\">cloture vote is set<\/a> for 2:15 p.m. ET on Sept. 15. Supporters need 60 votes on the motion to proceed, which is not passage but permission to debate.<\/p>\n<p>It is also the day the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens a two-day meeting. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-price-80k-fomc-cpi-jobless-claims-september-2026\/\">Bitcoin\u2019s price has spent<\/a> the week pinned near $79,000 and unable to clear $80,000, with fed funds futures assigning roughly 57% odds to a rate hike, up from 34.8% in late August. Anyone reading the same calendar gets a monetary decision and a regulatory verdict inside 48 hours, with August inflation data landing on Sept. 11 in between.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets have already picked a side on one of them. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/white-house-clarity-act-september-15-deadline\/\">Polymarket odds on the bill<\/a> becoming law in 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sit near 15%<\/a>, down from above 75% earlier in the year. Bitcoin.com News reported last week that those odds had <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/clarity-act-odds-stay-buried-as-senate-showdown-closes-in\/\">stayed buried<\/a> even as the Senate showdown closed in.<\/p>\n<h2>What Happens If Cloture Fails<\/h2>\n<p>A failed vote on Sept. 15 does not formally kill the bill, but it closes the last comfortable window. The House passed its version 294-134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a companion measure 15-9 in May 2026, with all Republicans and two Democrats in favor. A merged text arrived in July and has not moved since.<\/p>\n<p>Industry groups are treating the pessimism as leverage rather than a forecast, arguing that lawmakers routinely talk down a bill\u2019s chances to extract late concessions. In any case, if the cloture fails, the practical question becomes whether any market-structure bill reaches the floor before the midterm calendar swallows the remaining days. Interesting weeks ahead!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/clarity-act-republican-senators-fail-white-house-ethics\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Sen. Mike Rounds said negotiations \u201cdo not look good right now\u201d ahead of the Sept. 15 cloture vote. Polymarket puts a passage this year near 15%. A 60-vote cloture threshold at 2:15 p.m. ET decides whether the bill reaches the Senate floor. The Sentence That Moved [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":77926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77925"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77925\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}