{"id":78237,"date":"2026-09-16T07:10:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/kalshi-beats-the-books-on-nfl-totals-loses-to-fanduel-on-moneylines\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T07:10:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:10:11","slug":"kalshi-beats-the-books-on-nfl-totals-loses-to-fanduel-on-moneylines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/kalshi-beats-the-books-on-nfl-totals-loses-to-fanduel-on-moneylines\/","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi Beats the Books on NFL Totals, Loses to Fanduel on Moneylines"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Citizens put Kalshi\u2019s Week 1 implied vig at 4.32%, against 4.44% and 4.51% at the books.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">On game outcomes alone Fanduel was cheaper, at 4.08% against Kalshi\u2019s 4.14%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi\u2019s parlay vig was 23.8%, against 22.0% at both sportsbooks, before fees.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>An Edge Built on Totals, Measured Before Fees<\/h2>\n<p>Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin of Citizens JMP Securities <a href=\"https:\/\/citizens.bluematrix.com\/links2\/pdf\/36a07087-52e7-46b2-b3f0-a32d3dffe7a4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">tracked pre-game pricing<\/a> on the Friday afternoon before NFL Week 1, covering moneylines and over\/unders across 28 data points at Fanduel, Draftkings and Kalshi. Their headline was that the exchange won: Kalshi\u2019s implied vig came in at 4.32%, below Fanduel\u2019s 4.44% and Draftkings\u2019 4.51%. A year ago, Kalshi trailed both by 30 to 40 basis points for the full NFL season.<\/p>\n<p>On game outcomes, Fanduel charged 4.08% and Kalshi 4.14%, with Draftkings third at 4.31%. On over\/unders, Kalshi charged 4.50% against Draftkings\u2019 4.71% and Fanduel\u2019s 4.80%. The 4.32% headline figure is the straight average of Kalshi\u2019s two, meaning the exchange\u2019s advantage is a totals advantage. The 4.84% figure being cited as last season\u2019s Kalshi implied vig reflects a full-season average across 17 weeks; its Week 1 2025 price was 5.31%, making the like-for-like improvement 99 basis points rather than 52.<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi does not build a margin into the price the way a sportsbook does; it charges a transaction fee on the trade instead. Citizens reports this fee separately, at an average of $1.62 per 100 contracts across the markets tracked (1.6% on outcomes and 1.8% on over\/unders in Week 1). The vig comparison for parlays is stated to be \u201cbefore accounting for transaction fees.\u201d The note does not say the same for the single-event figures, but nothing in it indicates otherwise, and when Citizens previously ran this exercise in September 2025, it compared the two venues with fees included and concluded Kalshi was more expensive. On this year\u2019s numbers, adding the fee would put Kalshi above both books on both bet types.<\/p>\n<p>Combos or parlays show an even wider gap, as Kalshi\u2019s combo vig was 23.8% against 22.0% at both sportsbooks, calculated across 14 data points by averaging the over and the favorite in every game. Both sides improved on last season (Kalshi from 25.9%, Fanduel from 24.4%, Draftkings from 25.0%) but the books improved faster. The spread against Fanduel went from 150 basis points to 180. Bender and Slavin are watching whether Kalshi\u2019s introduction of a combo market-making fee in August moves spreads \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/igaming\/polymarket-us-tests-parlays-as-kalshi-banks-25m-in-fees\/\">in August, the exchange\u2019s own published schedule did not list this adjustment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Citizens frames the trend as self-reinforcing, arguing that higher volumes, deeper participation and competition among liquidity providers tighten spreads, which attracts more trading, which tightens them further. Kalshi set consecutive daily records over the weekend at $2.426 billion and $2.433 billion, taking <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ingame.com\/kalshi-record-football-weekend\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more than $32 million in fees across the two days<\/a>, with parlays accounting for more than half the total. Takers lost $2.1 million before fees on Sunday and $15.2 million after; on parlays, it was $200,000 before fees and $4.1 million after.<\/p>\n<p>Citizens also argues that cannibalization of regulated sportsbooks \u201cis not getting worse and may be easing,\u201d that wallets are splitting rather than switching, and that Kalshi is \u201cprimarily attracting a cohort of players who may otherwise wager on offshore books.\u201d That is the opposite of the case the American Gaming Association made this month when it <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/igaming\/casino-lobby-blames-prediction-markets-for-first-flat-nfl-betting-season\/\">forecast the first flat NFL betting season<\/a> since 2018 and blamed prediction markets for it.<\/p>\n<p>Part of the context of this analysis is that Citizens JMP rates Draftkings, Flutter, PENN and Rush Street Market Outperform and MGM Market Perform. It makes a market in four of the five, and it has received investment-banking compensation from Draftkings and MGM in the past twelve months. Citizens JMP was manager or co-manager of public offerings for PENN and Rush Street in the same period, and states that it expects to seek investment-banking compensation from all five within the next three months. Its conclusion is that betting exchanges \u201cdo not represent a competitive threat to the profitability of existing operators,\u201d naming each of them.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/igaming\/kalshi-beats-the-books-on-nfl-totals-loses-to-fanduel-on-moneylines\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Citizens put Kalshi\u2019s Week 1 implied vig at 4.32%, against 4.44% and 4.51% at the books. On game outcomes alone Fanduel was cheaper, at 4.08% against Kalshi\u2019s 4.14%. Kalshi\u2019s parlay vig was 23.8%, against 22.0% at both sportsbooks, before fees. An Edge Built on Totals, Measured [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362403,"featured_media":78238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78237"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78237\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}