{"id":78245,"date":"2026-09-16T11:14:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T11:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/kalshi-hits-40b-volume-and-80-of-us-prediction-market-bitcoin-news\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T11:14:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T11:14:13","slug":"kalshi-hits-40b-volume-and-80-of-us-prediction-market-bitcoin-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/kalshi-hits-40b-volume-and-80-of-us-prediction-market-bitcoin-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi Hits $40B+ Volume and 80% of US Prediction Market \u2013 Bitcoin News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi\u2019s 30-day volume hit $14.1 billion on Sept. 4 against Polymarket\u2019s $3.1 billion, an 82% share.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The Senate blocked the CLARITY Act 49-50 on Sept. 15, ending market structure legislation for 2026.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket now prices just a 7% chance the CLARITY Act becomes law before the end of the year.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>A Regulated Winner on a Losing Night<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pete_rizzo_\/status\/2100043241303445601\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">highlighted the striking metric<\/a> hours after the vote, noting:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>$40 billion regulated prediction market Kalshi is now 80% of all US volume. Global crypto demand is returning to American markets. We dont need CLARITY.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The wording seemed quite deliberate given Kalshi is the venue that never needed a new law, primarily because it already had one. To elaborate, the prediction giant received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission\u2019s (CFTC) approval as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trmlabs.com\/resources\/blog\/how-prediction-markets-scaled-to-usd-21b-in-monthly-volume-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Designated Contract Market<\/a> in 2021, making it the first federally regulated prediction exchange in U.S. history.<\/p>\n<p>Everything it lists trades inside an existing framework, which is precisely what the CLARITY Act was meant to build for the rest of the industry.<\/p>\n<p>That <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/clarity-act-made-126-concessions-and-still-couldnt-get-60-votes\/?_gr=1\">bill failed on a 49-50 cloture vote on Sept. 15<\/a>, 11 short of the 60 needed to open debate, effectively ending market structure legislation for 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>The Volume Gap, in Numbers<\/h2>\n<p>The 80% figure presented by Rizzo holds up against the overarching data available, as Kalshi\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/defirate.com\/prediction-markets\/volume\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">30-day rolling volume<\/a> reached $14.1 billion (as of Sept. 4), against $3.1 billion for Polymarket, which works out to roughly an 82% share between the two dominant venues.<\/p>\n<p>The gap, however, is recent, given that Bitcoin.com News reported that Kalshi <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/prediction-market-traders-push-april-2026-volume-to-8-6b-kalshi-takes-the-lead\/\">overtook Polymarket for the first time<\/a> in April, posting $5.42 billion in taker volume against Polymarket\u2019s $1.99 billion, in a month when the whole sector cleared $8.6 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Combined monthly volume across the two has climbed from under $5 billion in September 2025 to roughly $24 billion by April 2026. The valuation has followed; i.e. Kalshi is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b6ef5e8a-4288-4223-a017-c97b89cac2fa?syn-25a6b1a6=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">raising at least $750 million<\/a> at $40 billion, double its $22 billion mark from six months earlier.<\/p>\n<p>Sports carries most of that flow, accounting for over 80% of Kalshi\u2019s own trading. But the regulatory posture is the asset, not the sports book.<\/p>\n<h2>The Argument Rizzo Is Making<\/h2>\n<p>Strip out the overly exaggerated language used by Rizzo, and one can see that the claim he is making is a legitimate one. If the largest regulated venue in a crypto-adjacent market can scale to a multi-billion figure per month (under rules written in 2021), the industry\u2019s dependence on new legislation may be overstated.<\/p>\n<p>The counterargument seems to be just as clean since Kalshi\u2019s contracts are event futures with an obvious regulator, while spot tokens, exchanges and custodians sit in the jurisdictional gap the CLARITY Act was drafted to close. A designated contract market license does nothing for a token issuer.<\/p>\n<p>What is not in dispute is where the volumes have gone. On the night Congress declined to write crypto\u2019s rules, the fastest-growing regulated market in American finance was busy setting records without them. The next real test is the midterms, where Kalshi and Polymarket have <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-and-polymarket-midterm-markets-favor-democratic-sweep-with-12-5m-combined-volume\/\">already opened markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/kalshi-40-billion-80-percent-us-prediction-volume-clarity-act\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Kalshi\u2019s 30-day volume hit $14.1 billion on Sept. 4 against Polymarket\u2019s $3.1 billion, an 82% share. The Senate blocked the CLARITY Act 49-50 on Sept. 15, ending market structure legislation for 2026. Polymarket now prices just a 7% chance the CLARITY Act becomes law before the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":78246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78245"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}