{"id":78381,"date":"2026-09-19T15:32:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/feds-next-rate-move-has-traders-staring-at-a-coin-toss\/"},"modified":"2026-09-19T15:32:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T15:32:06","slug":"feds-next-rate-move-has-traders-staring-at-a-coin-toss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/feds-next-rate-move-has-traders-staring-at-a-coin-toss\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s Next Rate Move Has Traders Staring at a Coin Toss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket bettors give another Fed hike in October 56% odds, while a pause is still close behind at 44%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">CME traders see a 90.1% chance rates finish above today\u2019s range by December, with another hike firmly in play.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi bettors put a quarter-point Fed hike on Oct. 28 at 54%, compared with 44% odds that rates stay put.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>From Rate Cuts to Another Hike in One Month<\/h2>\n<p>What a difference a month makes. On Aug. 19, CME futures gave the U.S. Federal Reserve a 53.6% chance of cutting rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting. Fast forward through <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/after-years-of-holds-and-cuts-the-fed-just-raised-rates-again\/\">the Fed\u2019s Sept. 16 hike<\/a>, its first increase in more than three years, and that same cut is now sitting at precisely 0%. Instead, futures traders give another quarter-point increase a 57.6% probability, against 42.4% for leaving rates alone. The really interesting part is that prediction-market bettors have independently landed in almost exactly the same place.<\/p>\n<p>As of Sept. 19, 2026, Polymarket bettors <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">currently put a 56% probability<\/a> on another 25-basis-point increase at the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting, while a hold gets 44%. A bigger increase of 50 basis points or more sits at just 1%, and a quarter-point cut is also around 1%. More than $7.7 million has traded across the market since it opened on June 17.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_848846\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-848846\" style=\"width:1888px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-848846\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Polymarket on Sept. 19, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Kalshi tells nearly the same story. Its roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxfeddecision\/fed-meeting\/kxfeddecision-26oct\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$1.93 million October market on Saturday<\/a> gives a quarter-point hike a 54% probability and a hold 44%, while a hike larger than 25 basis points sits at 2%. Three different markets, three different ways of putting money behind an opinion, and all three are clustered within a few percentage points of one another.<\/p>\n<h2>Warsh Isn\u2019t Giving Traders a Road Map<\/h2>\n<p>Here\u2019s the catch. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/fed-hike-odds-surge-as-warsh-unleashes-hawkish-warning\/\">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh<\/a> has gone out of his way not to promise any of this. Asked after Wednesday\u2019s hike whether the Fed was embarking on the sort of sequence of increases that has historically followed an initial move, Warsh shut the door on an easy answer. \u201cI\u2019m not in the forward guidance business,\u201d he remarked, adding that he wasn\u2019t going to \u201cpre-judge any future decisions we make.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Warsh was equally blunt about the Fed\u2019s obsession with individual economic releases. Rather than hanging monetary policy on the latest inflation print, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">he stated that \u201ctrends matter\u201d<\/a> and \u201cdata points are noisy.\u201d Then he went a step further:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cData point dependence is a dangerous preoccupation, it\u2019s not something that concerns me.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So traders are trying to handicap October while the guy running the Fed is basically telling them not to expect a trail of breadcrumbs.<\/p>\n<h2>The September Hike Changed Everything<\/h2>\n<p>The September meeting provides some pretty obvious clues about why the odds flipped. The FOMC unanimously raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, ending 1,148 days without an increase. Warsh said the economy appeared to be strengthening and that he and his colleagues were hard-pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive. Inflation, meanwhile, remained above the Fed\u2019s 2% objective.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh estimated the August total personal consumption expenditures inflation at around 3.6% over 12 months, with core PCE around 3.2%. He said <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/562m-liquidation-surge-hits-crypto-market-after-ppi-inflation-jump\/\">inflation had been running above target<\/a> for more than five years and put the problem in unusually plain language:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The betting shift is hard to miss. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CME\u2019s October odds for a quarter-point hike<\/a> stood at only 6.6% a month ago, then reached 42.5% one week ago and now sit at 57.6%. Meanwhile, the probability of a cut went the opposite direction, collapsing from 53.6% a month ago to 6.5% one week ago and now 0%.<\/p>\n<h2>December Is Where the Numbers Get Wild<\/h2>\n<p>October is still a fairly close call. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December is another story<\/a>. CME futures put the probability of rates being above today\u2019s 3.75%-4% range after the Dec. 9 meeting at 90.1%. The current range surviving through December gets only 9.9%, while the probability attached to a lower range is 0%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_848847\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-848847\" style=\"width:2044px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-848847 size-full\" title=\"Fed\u2019s Next Rate Move Has Traders Staring at a Coin Toss\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am.png\" alt=\"CME Fedwatch tool on Sept. 19, 2026 screenshot. \" width=\"2044\" height=\"1200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am-1024x601.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am-1536x902.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/screenshot-2026-09-19-at-8-50-15-am.png 2044w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2044px) 100vw, 2044px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-848847\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: CME Fedwatch tool on Sept. 19, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <!-- --> <\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s an important wrinkle in those numbers. Futures assign a 46% probability to a 4%-4.25% target range in December and another 44.1% to 4.25%-4.5%. In plain English, the market isn\u2019t merely entertaining one more hike. Nearly half of the probability distribution sits two quarter-point moves above today\u2019s range by December. A month ago, that 4.25%-4.5% outcome carried just a 2.6% probability.<\/p>\n<p>That is a pretty dramatic rewrite of the rate script in four weeks. In August, traders were debating how much lower rates might go. Now they\u2019re debating how much higher.<\/p>\n<h2>Trump Wants the Elevator Going the Other Way<\/h2>\n<p>President Donald Trump, meanwhile, wants none of it. After the Sept. 16 increase, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/trump-demands-rate-cuts-as-warsh-sends-fed-hike-odds-above-66\/\">argued that U.S. interest rates<\/a> \u201cshould be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World \u2014 BY FAR.\u201d He also demanded:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cLOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Trump nevertheless said he still had confidence in Warsh, whom he appointed, while directing his anger toward the rest of the Fed board. He called its members \u201cvery hostile,\u201d \u201cvery political,\u201d and \u201ca bunch of politicians,\u201d though the supplied material notes that he did not attack Warsh by name in the manner <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/trump-demands-fed-slash-rates-by-3-says-powell-should-step-down\/\">he previously attacked<\/a> former Fed Chair Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n<p>That creates a pretty strange setup heading into October. Trump wants rates drastically lower, Warsh refuses to telegraph his next move, inflation remains above target, and people wagering real money increasingly think another hike is in the cards.<\/p>\n<h2>October Suddenly Looks Like the Main Event<\/h2>\n<p>For now, nobody has October locked down. All the markets currently look like a coin toss. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/defi-and-web3\/prediction-markets\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The prediction marketplace<\/a> Polymarket says 56% for another quarter-point hike. Kalshi says 54%. CME futures say 57.6%. The alternative, a simple pause at 3.75%-4%, still carries enough probability to make the Oct. 28 decision a genuine toss-up rather than a foregone conclusion.<\/p>\n<p>December is where traders are making the much bigger bet. CME\u2019s 90.1% probability of rates ending above today\u2019s range suggests the market increasingly views September not as a lonely hike, but as potentially the beginning of something larger. A month ago, traders gave an October rate cut better-than-even odds. Today, that number is zero. The Fed took 1,148 days to raise rates again. Markets are betting the next one could take just 42.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/feds-next-rate-move-has-traders-staring-at-a-coin-toss\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Polymarket bettors give another Fed hike in October 56% odds, while a pause is still close behind at 44%. CME traders see a 90.1% chance rates finish above today\u2019s range by December, with another hike firmly in play. Kalshi bettors put a quarter-point Fed hike on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":78382,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78381"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78381\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}