{"id":78415,"date":"2026-09-20T08:49:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T08:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T08:49:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T08:49:06","slug":"raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Raoul Pal Says Bitcoin Will Outrun the Nasdaq as Rates Break Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Raoul Pal said on Sept. 18 that BTC has broken its downtrend against the Nasdaq 100 on weekly charts.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">His call came two days after the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Pal named crypto outside his top 10 investments and believes there are other bigger opportunities heading into 2027.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>What Did Pal Actually Say?<\/h2>\n<p>The macro investor laid out his case in a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RaoulGMI\/status\/2101082909474210214\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">six-post thread on X<\/a> on Friday, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forward as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets the \u2018Everything Code.\u2019 As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply\u2026 there is signal in that.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Most traders expect higher rates to hurt bitcoin, but Pal is arguing the opposite, and the past week gives him some material to work with.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Would Rate Hikes Help Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n<p>The week was supposed to be bearish given the Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/after-years-of-holds-and-cuts-the-fed-just-raised-rates-again\/\">raised rates by 25 basis points<\/a> to 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12-0 vote, its first hike since July 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers signaled at least one more increase before year-end. Two days later, the <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoins-price-rips-past-80k-as-short-sellers-get-steamrolled\/\">Bank of Japan lifted<\/a> its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s price, however, went the other way, and after trading near $75,580 before the Fed\u2019s decision, bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoins-price-rips-past-80k-as-short-sellers-get-steamrolled\/\">breezed past $81,000<\/a> yesterday, a level it has since maintained.<\/p>\n<p>Pal\u2019s explanation is fiscal dominance, the idea that when a government is carrying enough debt, higher interest costs become a problem only fresh liquidity can solve. Debt has to be refinanced, and refinancing at higher rates means more money has to be created somewhere.<\/p>\n<p>In Pal\u2019s view, bitcoin is the asset most sensitive to that flood. He has previously pointed to bitcoin\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/raoul-pal-bitcoin-87-percent-correlation-global-liquidity\/\">87% correlation with global liquidity<\/a>, compared with 97% for the Nasdaq, a gap he reads as bitcoin carrying more upside when liquidity turns.<\/p>\n<h2>Where Is the Signal on the Chart?<\/h2>\n<p>Pal backed the thesis with three charts. The first plots BTC against the Nasdaq 100 in a log regression channel going back to 2013, with the ratio sitting near the bottom of that range after a slide through 2026. The second zooms in on the weekly ratio, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RaoulGMI\/status\/2101082912179257748\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">which Pal says<\/a> \u201chas broken the downtrend vs NDX\u2026 and put in some perfect DeMark lows.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>To this point, DeMark refers to the Tom DeMark 9-13 indicators, counting tools traders use to spot when a trend is running out of steam. A \u201c13\u201d buy signal near a low is read as a sign that sellers are exhausted. Pal\u2019s chart shows those counts printing around the ratio\u2019s summer lows, followed by a break above the falling channel that had capped it since mid-2025.<\/p>\n<h2>What Is \u201cthe Bigger Game\u201d?<\/h2>\n<p>Pal\u2019s third chart is not about bitcoin at all. \u201cBut the bigger game in town is OTHERS,\u201d he wrote, referring to Tradingview\u2019s index of total crypto market value excluding the top 10 coins. His chart put that market at about $226.27 billion, up 13.67% on the week, pressed into the tip of a triangle that has formed since the 2021 peak and runs toward early 2027.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-848816\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Raoul Pal's third chart shared on X earlier today.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1610\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-300x189.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-1024x644.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-768x483.jpg 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-1536x966.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-2048x1288.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/raoul-pal-says-bitcoin-will-outrun-the-nasdaq-as-rates-break-higher3-scaled.jpg 2560w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\"\/><\/p>\n<p>He also had a message for frustrated holders, stating:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cYeah, holders are down, but if you are in larger protocols and are complaining you are down, you don\u2019t understand time horizon or volatility or risk-reward,\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Pal has been leaning toward the altcoin side of the market lately, including calling Zcash bitcoin\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/raoul-pal-backs-zcash-as-bitcoins-younger-sibling-while-zec-climbs-8-outpacing-altcoins\/\">younger sibling<\/a>,\u201d repeatedly.<\/p>\n<h2>The Finer Print<\/h2>\n<p>Pal\u2019s calls have historically been big ones, but not all of them have landed on schedule. For instance, he has argued that a bitcoin supercycle is <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/raoul-pal-bitcoin-supercycle-2026\/\">more likely than ever in 2026<\/a> and floated targets as high as $450,000 by the year\u2019s end. He did, however, add a warning of his own before closing out his arguments:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Patience, as ever, is rewarded. Leverage never is. Don\u2019t F*** This Up.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/raoul-pal-bitcoin-outperform-nasdaq-rates-fiscal-dominance\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Raoul Pal said on Sept. 18 that BTC has broken its downtrend against the Nasdaq 100 on weekly charts. His call came two days after the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range. Pal named crypto outside his top 10 investments [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":78416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78415"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78415"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78415\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}