{"id":78519,"date":"2026-09-22T19:03:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T19:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/someone-bet-3-17m-on-bitcoin-price-rising-but-could-lose-big-if-btc-hits-100k\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T19:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T19:03:14","slug":"someone-bet-3-17m-on-bitcoin-price-rising-but-could-lose-big-if-btc-hits-100k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/someone-bet-3-17m-on-bitcoin-price-rising-but-could-lose-big-if-btc-hits-100k\/","title":{"rendered":"Someone Bet $3.17M on Bitcoin Price Rising\u2014But Could Lose Big if BTC Hits $100K"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">A reported bitcoin options position cost $3.17 million to establish.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Its highest payout comes with bitcoin\u2019s price at $95,000 at the expiry date.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Settlement at a price of $100,000 or above would wipe out the initial payment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>A Multimillion-Dollar Bet With a Precise Destination<\/h2>\n<p>The price of bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-eyes-100k-as-analyst-sees-potentially-explosive-q4\/\">reaching $100,000<\/a> for the first time since November 2025 would give plenty of holders something to celebrate. But for whoever bought one recently reported options position, that milestone could come with a $3.17 million loss.<\/p>\n<p>The trade has a preferred destination: $95,000. Overshooting that mark reduces the eventual payout, and if bitcoin climbs far enough above that level, then the payout disappears altogether. It is a peculiar situation to pay millions to enter, but the explanation lies in how the bet was assembled.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/app.laevitas.ch\/assets\/options\/overview\/BTC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Laevitas data<\/a>, the position was executed through liquidity network Paradigm in five blocks.<\/p>\n<p>The buyer combined October 30 call options at three prices: $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000. They purchased calls at the lowest and highest levels while selling twice as many at the middle one. Together, those contracts form a \u201clong call butterfly.\u201d The net upfront payment was $3.17 million.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Too Much Good News Can Become Costly<\/h2>\n<p>An ordinary spot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/the-benefits-of-bitcoin\/?_gl=1*1cvwa6c*_ga*MjE1MTQ4MjQ1LjE3NzA5OTgxMTI.*_ga_LKPRS3F1JD*czE3OTAwOTM2NDgkbzExMyRnMCR0MTc5MDA5MzY0OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_gcl_au*ODc0NjYyNzQuMTc4NjYyMDA1MA..*_ga_ERLPF60ZDD*czE3OTAwNzk1MjIkbzQzNSRnMSR0MTc5MDA4MzQ5MyRqNTIkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin holder<\/a> benefits as the price climbs. A butterfly spread has a different shape.<\/p>\n<p>Its payout rises toward the middle strike, then shrinks as the price moves toward the upper boundary. The calls sold in the middle create obligations that offset the benefits of the purchased contracts.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.optionseducation.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Options Industry Council<\/a> explains that this structure reaches its maximum profit at the middle strike at expiry. At or beyond either outer strike, the initial premium is lost. The buyer accepts those limits in exchange for a position built around a particular outcome.<\/p>\n<h2>The Date Matters as Much as the Price<\/h2>\n<p>If bitcoin were to surge to $100,000 tomorrow\u2014rising from a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-liquidations-drop-sharply-price-holds-above-86000\/\">recent price around $86,000<\/a>\u2014it would not automatically settle this trade.<\/p>\n<p>The expiry calculation depends on the October 30 settlement price, assuming the position remains intact. Before then, its market value can change, and the holder could close or adjust it.<\/p>\n<p>There is another distinction: receiving a payout does not necessarily mean making a profit. That payout must first cover the amount spent establishing the position, along with trading costs.<\/p>\n<h2>What the Trade Leaves Unanswered<\/h2>\n<p>The reported transaction does not reveal the buyer\u2019s full portfolio. It could accompany other positions, so we can\u2019t assume that it serves as someone\u2019s entire bitcoin outlook.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the structure gives the story its unusual tension. An investor can <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/price-predictions\/bitcoin-price-eyes-100k-as-prediction-markets-wall-street-weigh-in\/\">anticipate a rally<\/a> correctly and still lose money because the final price lands outside the range they paid to target.<\/p>\n<p>For this position, where <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-price-tests-86k-as-1-07m-btc-supply-wall-looms\/\">bitcoin finishes matters<\/a> enormously. A celebration across the wider crypto market could coincide with a very expensive expiry for this one trader.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/price-predictions\/someone-bet-3-17m-bitcoin-price-rising-could-lose-big-100k\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways A reported bitcoin options position cost $3.17 million to establish. Its highest payout comes with bitcoin\u2019s price at $95,000 at the expiry date. Settlement at a price of $100,000 or above would wipe out the initial payment. A Multimillion-Dollar Bet With a Precise Destination The price [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362377,"featured_media":78520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78519"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362377"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78519\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}