{"id":78527,"date":"2026-09-22T23:07:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T23:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T23:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T23:07:13","slug":"bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Could Deliver 3-5x Returns This Cycle as Volatility Fades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Cryptoquant\u2019s CEO expects a smaller bitcoin rally and a milder bear market.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">His analysis points to stronger holder profitability and fresh capital.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Institutional ownership could reshape bitcoin\u2019s historical price cycles.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s Return Potential Comes With a Different Trade-Off<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin investors could face smaller cycle gains alongside shallower losses as institutional ownership expands, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency analytics platform. In his Sept. 22 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/2102422863596728579\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin cycle forecast<\/a> on X, he argued that a larger market is reducing the extremes associated with earlier speculative booms.<\/p>\n<p>Ju stated:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI expect this bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3\u20135x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWhen Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p>Ju\u2019s outlook aligns with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fidelitydigitalassets.com\/research-and-insights\/closer-look-bitcoins-volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fidelity Digital Assets\u2019 historical analysis<\/a>, which documented bitcoin\u2019s declining volatility in May 2024. The financial giant explained that capital entering a larger market should have a smaller price impact. Its research documented declining volatility over time while distinguishing historical correlations from evidence that a particular price outcome must follow.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_849831\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-849831\" style=\"width:2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-849831\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin\u2019s price (gray) alongside the 365-day moving average of Cryptoquant\u2019s profit-and-loss index (purple), showing changes in holder profitability across market cycles. Source: Cryptoquant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Holder Profitability Supports Ju\u2019s Outlook<\/h2>\n<p>Ju\u2019s assessment draws on a profitability index that he says shows less extreme peaks and increasingly resilient cycle lows. The profit-and-loss, or PnL, index tracks aggregate holder profitability. He also highlighted a developing turn in its 365-day moving average, a slower-moving measure that smooths short-term fluctuations and typically responds after market conditions begin changing.<\/p>\n<p>The chart compares bitcoin\u2019s price in gray with the index\u2019s 365-day moving average in purple. Recent profitability peaks are lower than earlier cycle highs, supporting Ju\u2019s argument that market extremes are moderating. However, the purple line remains below zero and is still declining at the chart\u2019s right edge.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst reported that bitcoin remained above holders\u2019 average onchain cost basis even at this cycle\u2019s lows. He cited the market-value-to-realized-value ratio, which compares market capitalization with a valuation based on coins\u2019 last onchain movements, staying above one. In his interpretation, some investors absorbed losses while the holder base collectively remained above its estimated acquisition cost.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s historically low volatility is more closely associated with long-term holder supply than with market size, according to Glassnode. Its Sept. 8 analysis identified <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate\/\">long-term holder supply as the strongest explanatory variable<\/a> among those examined, accounting for nearly 19% of detrended volatility variance. Market capitalization explained approximately 3%, illustrating that market size alone offers an incomplete explanation for price stability.<\/p>\n<h2>Institutional Demand Could Reshape Bitcoin\u2019s Cycles<\/h2>\n<p>Ju identified rising realized capitalization, a halt in selling by longstanding large holders, and substantial bullish futures positions as supporting signals. He interpreted rising realized capitalization as fresh capital entering the market and reported that large futures traders built long positions near the bottom.<\/p>\n<p>His latest argument follows an earlier forecast that <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-bull-cycle-peak-could-be-driven-by-global-etf-demand\/\">international institutional demand and ETF access could shape bitcoin\u2019s cycle peak<\/a>. In August, Ju highlighted markets where regulated investment access remained limited. He expected broader fund availability, deeper stablecoin liquidity, and financial infrastructure using tokenized assets to support participation beyond the United States.<\/p>\n<p>Recent wallet data provide another view of ownership changes, with <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/smaller-bitcoin-holders-sold-before-85k-rally-as-69494-wallets-exit\/\">two smaller-holder groups shrinking by 69,494 addresses before bitcoin\u2019s recovery above $85,000<\/a>. Santiment associated the July-August contraction with capitulation. Those figures describe changes in address balance categories, rather than establishing that an equivalent number of individual investors left bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Ju remarked:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cGiving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Lower <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/trading-and-investing\/market-dynamics\/what-is-volatility\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility, the speed and extent of price changes<\/a>, is central to Ju\u2019s longer-term argument about adoption. His broader thesis extends beyond returns: greater stability could eventually make bitcoin more practical for use as money.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Cryptoquant\u2019s CEO expects a smaller bitcoin rally and a milder bear market. His analysis points to stronger holder profitability and fresh capital. Institutional ownership could reshape bitcoin\u2019s historical price cycles. Bitcoin\u2019s Return Potential Comes With a Different Trade-Off Bitcoin investors could face smaller cycle gains alongside [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":78528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78527"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}