{"id":78823,"date":"2026-09-29T11:42:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T11:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-price-to-hit-100k-in-2026-kalshi-gives-it-a-34-chance\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:42:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T11:42:08","slug":"bitcoin-price-to-hit-100k-in-2026-kalshi-gives-it-a-34-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-price-to-hit-100k-in-2026-kalshi-gives-it-a-34-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price to Hit $100K in 2026? Kalshi Gives It a 34% Chance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi\u2019s $100K-in-2026 contract rose from 17% on Sept. 16 to 43% on Sept. 22, then eased to its current level of 34%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket prices the same Dec. 31 target at 34.5%, while its March 2027 contract sits near 50%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">BTC peaked just above $97,000 in January and needs a roughly 20% rally from $83,100 by Dec. 31.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2><b>The Round Trip, Date by Date<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>The contract in question is Kalshi\u2019s \u201cHow high will Bitcoin get in 2026?\u201d market, and its $100,000 strike has had a busy September. Daily closing prices, which sit at 34 cents, mean a 34% implied chance.<\/p>\n<p>This is what the odds looked like:<\/p>\n<h2>Why the Bitcoin Rally Has Seemingly Faded<\/h2>\n<p>The pullback in odds tracks a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-price-83k-500m-liquidations-129197-traders\/\">pullback in risk appetite<\/a> as oil climbed after President Donald Trump rejected Iran\u2019s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the CME Fedwatch tool now shows a 70.3% chance of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold, too, posted one of its <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/gold-silver-550-billion-wipeout-bitcoin-price\/\">sharpest one-day drops<\/a> in two decades on the same move.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto felt the tremors quickly as roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptorover\/status\/2104768210944037120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$500 million in positions<\/a> were liquidated over 24 hours as BTC broke below $83,000. Also, analysts now see a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/analyst-sees-75-chance-crypto-cycle-has-turned-as-bitcoin-pulls-back\/\">75% chance<\/a> that the crypto cycle has turned.<\/p>\n<p>The bullish case has not disappeared, though, and Fidelity\u2019s Jurrien Timmer recently <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/fidelity-timmer-bitcoin-double-bottom-100k\/\">flipped toward $100K<\/a> after calling 2026 a \u201cyear off\u201d (all while spot bitcoin funds just booked their <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-etfs-pull-2-39-billion-best-week-since-october-2025\/\">best week since<\/a> October 2025).<\/p>\n<h2>The Numbers Above $100K<\/h2>\n<p>Looking past the headline figure, it becomes quite clear that traders are not saying never to a $100K surge but just \u201cnot yet.\u201d On Kalshi, the $110,000 strike trades near 19 cents, $120,000 near 13 cents, and $150,000 around 4 cents.<\/p>\n<p>Over on <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket\u2019s $100K market<\/a>, the numbers are as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight:400\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>By Dec. 31, 2026:<\/b> 34.5%<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight:400\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>By March 31, 2027:<\/b> 50.5%<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight:400\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>By June 30, 2027:<\/b> 61.5%<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight:400\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>By Dec. 31, 2027:<\/b> 81%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Two platforms landing within about 1.5 points of each other on the same year-end question suggests the 33%-35% range is a fair read of the crowd right now. October starts Thursday, and crypto traders are already calling it \u201cUptober.\u201d For now, the market has priced in a one-in-three chance that 2026 still gets its six-figure moment.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/price-predictions\/bitcoin-100k-odds-kalshi-polymarket-2026\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Kalshi\u2019s $100K-in-2026 contract rose from 17% on Sept. 16 to 43% on Sept. 22, then eased to its current level of 34%. Polymarket prices the same Dec. 31 target at 34.5%, while its March 2027 contract sits near 50%. BTC peaked just above $97,000 in January [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":78824,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78823"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78823"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78823\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}