{"id":78895,"date":"2026-10-01T00:19:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T00:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/msci-rule-puts-strategy-at-risk-says-bitcoin-policy-institute-paper\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T00:19:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T00:19:10","slug":"msci-rule-puts-strategy-at-risk-says-bitcoin-policy-institute-paper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/msci-rule-puts-strategy-at-risk-says-bitcoin-policy-institute-paper\/","title":{"rendered":"MSCI Rule Puts Strategy at Risk, Says Bitcoin Policy Institute Paper"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">MSCI\u2019s simulated index deletions include Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">JPMorgan estimated MSCI removal could trigger $2.8 billion in Strategy selling.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin Policy Institute says MSCI expects a decision by Oct. 16.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Wall Street\u2019s Quiet Committee Can Move Billions<\/h2>\n<p>Your \u201cpassive\u201d index fund isn\u2019t quite as passive as the label suggests. Somewhere upstream, a private index provider writes the rules deciding which companies count as the market, and those decisions can send funds scrambling to buy or sell billions of dollars in shares.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Washington, D.C.-based, non-partisan, non-profit think tank, Bitcoin Policy Institute, took <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/bitcoinpolicy\/status\/2105286617967497425?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the wraps off that machinery in a new paper<\/a> by Executive Director Conner Brown, focusing on MSCI\u2019s proposed test for \u201cnon-operating companies.\u201d MSCI\u2019s own simulation, according to the paper, would remove Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake, a company holding physical uranium.<\/p>\n<h2>Passive Money Still Has Someone Picking the List<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/files.arsenalos.org\/library\/43a2a950-4151-4121-83e7-63d49f34ea89.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Brown\u2019s paper on the subject<\/a> puts some eye-popping numbers behind the power wielded by index providers. As of July, index funds held $21.8 trillion, or 53.9% of U.S. long-term fund assets, versus $18.6 trillion in actively managed funds. By 2025, index funds owned 19% of the U.S. stock market. MSCI alone says $21 trillion is benchmarked to its indexes, including $2.8 trillion in equity exchange-traded funds that track them directly.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_852204\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-852204\" style=\"width:1848px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-852204\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Bitcoin Policy Institute\u2019s paper called \u201cWall Street\u2019s Invisible Committee.\u201d<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That leads to one of the more counterintuitive points in Brown\u2019s research. The index provider doesn\u2019t actually manage those trillions. Fund managers do. Yet when an index provider changes the companies on its list, funds built to track that benchmark generally have to adjust with it. As Brown\u2019s analysis lays it out, the firm writing the rulebook never touches the investor\u2019s money, but its decisions can still set billions of dollars in motion.<\/p>\n<p>The mechanics became considerably less theoretical in 2025. The Bitcoin Policy Institute author recounts how MSCI proposed excluding companies whose digital assets represented at least 50% of total assets, putting <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/saylor-strategy-3568-btc-297m-transfer-fidelity-custody\/\">the bitcoin treasury firm Strategy<\/a> squarely in the frame. JPMorgan analysts estimated Strategy\u2019s removal could prompt roughly $2.8 billion in selling by MSCI-tracking funds, climbing to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed.<\/p>\n<p>MSCI eventually nixed the proposal, but Brown points to what happened next. The firm froze increases in the number of shares it would count for affected companies and deferred new additions while preparing a broader review.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Rule Returns Wearing a Different Hat<\/h2>\n<p>Seven months later, Brown writes, MSCI came back with a broader test that no longer singled out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/price\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin (BTC)<\/a> or digital assets by name. Instead, the August proposal centers on whether a company has enough \u201coperating assets.\u201d A company failing the initial 50% screen faces five additional financial tests and, if it isn\u2019t already an index constituent, can be excluded after triggering four of them. Existing constituents receive buffers and generally must fail during two consecutive annual reviews before removal.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s where Brown sees a fundamental problem. His paper says \u201coperating assets\u201d isn\u2019t a standardized balance-sheet category under U.S. GAAP or IFRS, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/saylor-strikes-back-strategy-slams-mscis-flawed-index-test\/\">leaving MSCI to classify<\/a> everything from cash and mineral rights to unfinished construction, intellectual property and strategic holdings before the math can even begin.<\/p>\n<p>Brown also zeroes in on Strategy\u2019s bitcoin accounting. The company reported $22.8 billion in bitcoin-related operating losses during the first half of 2026, compared with $195 million in its other operating expenses. Count those figures as Strategy filed them, Brown argues, and one of MSCI\u2019s flags wouldn\u2019t be triggered. The 23-page paper contends that reaching MSCI\u2019s simulated result, therefore, requires an analytical reclassification that the consultation doesn\u2019t disclose.<\/p>\n<h2>The Uranium Twist Breaks the Story Wide Open<\/h2>\n<p>Brown\u2019s argument gets considerably stranger once bitcoin leaves the picture. MSCI\u2019s simulated deletions <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/a-federal-us-crypto-bank-just-added-physical-uranium-tokens\/\">also include Yellow Cake<\/a>, a company that holds physical uranium. The Bitcoin Policy Institute paper then takes the proposed methodology for a spin across other capital-intensive businesses, illustrating how the same logic might reach companies building satellites or a major U.S. lithium mine.<\/p>\n<p>Under one plausible interpretation examined by Brown, AST Spacemobile could trigger four of MSCI\u2019s flags and potentially be barred as a new index entrant. Lithium Americas presents an even sharper example. The company is <a href=\"https:\/\/lithiumamericas.com\/thacker-pass\/overview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">building the Thacker Pass lithium project<\/a> in Nevada, and Brown\u2019s analysis finds it could also trigger four flags.<\/p>\n<p>Lithium Americas reported $3.54 billion in assets in June, including $2.09 billion in mineral properties, plant and equipment. Yet Brown\u2019s paper shows how a restrictive reading of MSCI\u2019s proposal could make a mine still under construction look \u201cnon-operating\u201d precisely because it\u2019s expensive to build, hasn\u2019t begun producing revenue and depends heavily on outside financing. The bigger the unfinished project, in other words, the stranger the accounting picture can become.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/msci-proposal-strategy-metaplanet-index-removal\/\">MSCI is expected to decide<\/a> on or before Oct. 16, with any adopted changes slated for its November index review around Dec. 1. Brown\u2019s paper starts with bitcoin treasury companies, but its argument ultimately lands somewhere much bigger. When trillions of dollars mechanically follow an index, the definition of what counts as an operating business is anything but academic.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/msci-rule-puts-strategy-at-risk-says-bitcoin-policy-institute-paper\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways MSCI\u2019s simulated index deletions include Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake. JPMorgan estimated MSCI removal could trigger $2.8 billion in Strategy selling. Bitcoin Policy Institute says MSCI expects a decision by Oct. 16. Wall Street\u2019s Quiet Committee Can Move Billions Your \u201cpassive\u201d index fund isn\u2019t quite as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":78896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78895"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}