{"id":79149,"date":"2026-10-06T18:37:22","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T18:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/excluding-bitcoins-15-best-days-turns-225-3-year-gain-into-loss-grayscale\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T18:37:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T18:37:22","slug":"excluding-bitcoins-15-best-days-turns-225-3-year-gain-into-loss-grayscale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/excluding-bitcoins-15-best-days-turns-225-3-year-gain-into-loss-grayscale\/","title":{"rendered":"Excluding Bitcoin&#8217;s 15 Best Days Turns 225% 3-Year Gain Into Loss: Grayscale"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Excluding the five top days reduces bitcoin\u2019s three-year return to 95%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Removing the 10 strongest sessions leaves a cumulative gain of 27%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Grayscale favors consistent exposure over trying to time rallies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!-- --> <\/p>\n<h2>Just 15 Days Separate Bitcoin\u2019s Gain From a Loss<\/h2>\n<p>Missing bitcoin\u2019s strongest rallies could substantially alter long-term investment results, an analysis published by Grayscale on Oct. 5 shows. Zach Pandl, head of research at the digital asset investment manager, examined <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grayscale.com\/the-stack\/btc-s-hidden-risk-the-out-of-market-opportunity-cost\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the opportunity cost of remaining outside the bitcoin market<\/a> in its research series The Stack. Opportunity cost here means potential gains missed while remaining uninvested.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) returned approximately 225% over the three-year period examined through Sept. 23. Excluding its five best trading days reduced the cumulative return to 95%. Without the top 10, the gain fell to 27%, while eliminating the strongest 15 days produced an 11% loss.<\/p>\n<p>Pandl wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cInvestors waiting for volatility to subside or the outlook to become clearer may find that much of the repricing has already occurred.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The calculation illustrates the impact of missing selected positive sessions while retaining the remaining daily price changes across the period. For a hypothetical $10,000 starting investment, a 225% return would produce $32,500 before costs, compared with $8,900 under the scenario excluding the top 15 days.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_853842\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-853842\" style=\"width:1013px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-853842\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Three-year bitcoin and Nasdaq-100 returns after excluding their best trading days. Source: Bloomberg, Grayscale Investments. Data as of Sept. 23, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Waiting for Calm Can Mean Missing a Recovery<\/h2>\n<p>Attempts to avoid short-term losses can leave investors outside the market when prices rebound, a challenge extending beyond cryptocurrency. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) explained that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finra.org\/investors\/insights\/market-timing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market timing involves shifting investments to anticipate short-term price movements<\/a>. Strong sessions sometimes occur during turbulent periods, so an exit during a temporary sell-off risks missing the recovery.<\/p>\n<p>That trade-off centers on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/trading-and-investing\/market-dynamics\/what-is-volatility\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility, which measures the extent of price fluctuations<\/a>, rather than whether prices ultimately rise or fall. Grayscale\u2019s sample illustrates the concentration: fewer than 0.5% of days provided enough upside that excluding them more than halved BTC\u2019s cumulative gain.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s measured volatility is also associated with ownership patterns, according to crypto analytics firm Glassnode\u2019s Sept. 8 analysis. It identified <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-volatility-at-historic-low-as-long-term-holders-dominate\/\">long-term holder supply as the strongest explanatory variable for volatility<\/a> among those examined. These are coins held for at least 155 days. The measure explained nearly 19% of variation after removing longer-term statistical trends, a relationship that does not establish causation.<\/p>\n<h2>Grayscale Favors Long-Term Exposure Over Market Timing<\/h2>\n<p>The concentration of past gains presents a separate question from how much the cryptocurrency might rise in future cycles. Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju on Sept. 22 <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades\/\">projected threefold to fivefold cycle returns alongside a milder downturn<\/a>. The crypto analytics firm executive\u2019s forecast concerns potential performance, while Pandl\u2019s calculation examines an observed period.<\/p>\n<p>The investment vehicle can also change the price swings associated with exposure to a bitcoin-focused business. Michael Saylor\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/saylor-maps-three-bitcoin-paths-with-94-39-and-9-volatility\/\">comparison of bitcoin and Strategy securities showed different volatility profiles<\/a> using a chart dated Oct. 2. Saylor is executive chairman of Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR), the largest bitcoin treasury company with holdings valued in excess of $72 billon. Its shares introduce company-related risks distinct from owning the cryptocurrency directly.<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale used BTC\u2019s market price and the Nasdaq-100 Index, which tracks large nonfinancial companies listed on Nasdaq, excluding management fees and expenses. The equity benchmark\u2019s gains were less concentrated: without its 15 best trading days, its three-year return declined from 109% to 21%.<\/p>\n<p>Pandl argues that the strongest sessions cannot be reliably predicted, supporting the firm\u2019s preference for consistent, long-term exposure among investors seeking capital appreciation. That approach captures rallies when they arrive while retaining exposure to declines.<\/p>\n<div class=\"not-prose my-3 lg:my-4\">\n<div class=\"overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] hidden md:flex md:flex-row md:gap-3 lg:hidden\"><a aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/grayscale-launches-4-crypto-portfolios-for-financial-advisors\/\"><img alt=\"Grayscale Launches 4 Crypto Portfolios for Financial Advisors\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] hidden lg:flex lg:flex-row lg:gap-4\"><a aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/grayscale-launches-4-crypto-portfolios-for-financial-advisors\/\"><img alt=\"Grayscale Launches 4 Crypto Portfolios for Financial Advisors\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fgrayscale-clarity-act-4-blockchain-networks-to-benefit-150x150.jpg&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex min-w-0 flex-1 flex-col justify-center gap-2\">\n<p class=\"m-0 line-clamp-2 text-base leading-[1.3] !text-[#67656E]\">Grayscale has launched four model portfolios that let financial advisors add diversified crypto exposure through exchange-traded products. The strategies standardize\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/excluding-bitcoin-15-best-days-turns-225-gain-loss-grayscale\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Excluding the five top days reduces bitcoin\u2019s three-year return to 95%. Removing the 10 strongest sessions leaves a cumulative gain of 27%. Grayscale favors consistent exposure over trying to time rallies. Just 15 Days Separate Bitcoin\u2019s Gain From a Loss Missing bitcoin\u2019s strongest rallies could substantially [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":79150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79149"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79149\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}