{"id":79351,"date":"2026-10-11T03:21:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T03:21:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-drawdown-analysis-maps-a-74500-level-if-losses-deepen\/"},"modified":"2026-10-11T03:21:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T03:21:08","slug":"bitcoin-drawdown-analysis-maps-a-74500-level-if-losses-deepen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-drawdown-analysis-maps-a-74500-level-if-losses-deepen\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Drawdown Analysis Maps a $74,500 Level if Losses Deepen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The 2022-2025 bull cycle had an average drawdown of 7.58%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Reaching $74,500 would mean another 7.34% drop from the cited low.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The analyst proposes larger purchases between $74,000 and $75,000.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>How the $74,500 Calculation Works<\/h2>\n<p>The latest pullback has brought a $74,500 downside reference into focus, according to an analysis published by Cryptoquant on Oct. 9. Contributor MAC_D used the cryptocurrency analytics platform\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/6ac86d72bb83ab2bac71abe0-Bitcoin-Comparing-Historical-Bull-Market-Drawdowns-with-Current-Price-Levels\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">historical bull market corrections<\/a> to compare declines during bull markets, periods of broadly rising prices.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis measured a decline from $87,027 on Oct. 5 to $80,404 on Oct. 9, a $6,623 reduction, or approximately 7.61%. A drawdown measures how far a price falls from an earlier peak. That retreat nearly matched the previous expansion\u2019s average setback.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cApplying that historical average to the recent high gives a price level of approximately $74,500, which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The calculation applies a reported 14.39% historical benchmark, an earlier average used for comparison, to the Oct. 5 high.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_855041\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-855041\" style=\"width:1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-855041\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin bull market drawdowns across five historical cycles, showing average pullbacks ranging from 7.58% to 21.71%. Source: Cryptoquant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Earlier Advances Show How Corrections Differ<\/h2>\n<p>Average setbacks were 18.41% in 2010-2011, 21.71% in 2011-2013, 10.93% in 2015-2017, 19.39% in 2018-2021, and 7.58% in 2022-2025. The analysis puts the overall average across the five cycles at 14.39%.<\/p>\n<p>The latest cycle\u2019s milder setbacks accompany other observations of moderating fluctuations over time. Fidelity Digital Assets, Fidelity\u2019s digital asset business, documented <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fidelitydigitalassets.com\/research-and-insights\/closer-look-bitcoins-volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">moderating volatility<\/a> in May 2024. The term describes the size of movements in either direction. MAC_D\u2019s analysis also noted that individual events produced significantly deeper corrections.<\/p>\n<p>The broader recovery had received support from Cryptoquant\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-bull-score-83000\/\">Bull Score<\/a>, which rose from 30 to 80 in August. That gauge combines 10 indicators of demand, holder profitability, network activity, and liquidity, the availability of capital to support trading.<\/p>\n<h2>Buying Levels Accompany Signs of Recovery<\/h2>\n<p>September\u2019s recovery also generated a signal based on acquisition costs, estimates of what investors paid for their coins. Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost identified a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bull-market-confirmed-analyst-flags-bitcoins-fifth-historic-signal\/\">fifth historical bull market signal<\/a> on Sept. 24. Newer holders\u2019 cost crossed above that of longer-term holders whose coins had moved within seven years. He acknowledged a margin for error.<\/p>\n<p>Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju suggested on Sept. 22 that growing institutional ownership, meaning holdings by organizations such as investment funds, could produce <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-could-deliver-3-5x-returns-this-cycle-as-volatility-fades\/\">smaller cycle gains and shallower losses<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The asset\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bitcoin\/basics\/bitcoin-as-an-asset-class\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">investment risks<\/a> include substantial fluctuations even during periods of rising adoption. The analyst proposed purchases over time around $80,000 and larger commitments between $74,000 and $75,000. The lower buying range corresponds to approximately 13.82% to 14.97% below the Oct. 5 high.<\/p>\n<div class=\"not-prose my-3 lg:my-4\">\n<div class=\"overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] hidden md:flex md:flex-row md:gap-3 lg:hidden\"><a aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/us-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether\/\"><img alt=\"US Government Shifts $1 Billion in Bitcoin, $94 Million in Tether\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"overflow-hidden rounded-lg !bg-[#E8EDFA] p-[9px] hidden lg:flex lg:flex-row lg:gap-4\"><a aria-hidden=\"true\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"relative size-[150px] min-w-[150px] shrink-0 overflow-hidden rounded-[15px]\" href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/us-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether\/\"><img alt=\"US Government Shifts $1 Billion in Bitcoin, $94 Million in Tether\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"object-cover\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent\" sizes=\"150px\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 32w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=48&amp;q=75 48w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 64w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 128w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=384&amp;q=75 384w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=640&amp;q=75 640w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=828&amp;q=75 828w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1080&amp;q=75 1080w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75 1200w, \/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75 1920w\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.news.bitcoin.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F10%2Fus-government-shifts-1-billion-in-bitcoin-94-million-in-tether-150x150.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"absolute left-2 top-2\"><img alt=\"Bitcoin.com News\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"28\" height=\"28\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"size-7\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=32&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/_next\/image\/?url=%2Fimages%2Fuploads%2Fbitcoin_news_newlogo.svg&amp;w=64&amp;q=75\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex min-w-0 flex-1 flex-col justify-center gap-2\">\n<p class=\"m-0 line-clamp-2 text-base leading-[1.3] !text-[#67656E]\">The U.S. government&#8217;s cryptocurrency shuffle isn&#8217;t over. Following two days of bitcoin transfers totaling $770 million, federal wallets moved another\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-drawdown-analysis-maps-a-74500-level-if-losses-deepen\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways The 2022-2025 bull cycle had an average drawdown of 7.58%. Reaching $74,500 would mean another 7.34% drop from the cited low. The analyst proposes larger purchases between $74,000 and $75,000. How the $74,500 Calculation Works The latest pullback has brought a $74,500 downside reference into focus, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":79352,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79351"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}