Bitcoin Price Drops Below $85K as PlanB Maps October Path to $100K

Bitcoin Reclaims 365-Day Average

Bitcoin is back near $86,000, and the market is once again debating whether the next major stop is six figures.

PlanB, the analyst behind bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, outlined a scenario that would put BTC at $100,000 in October, above its previous $126,000 record before Christmas, and beyond $232,000 sometime in 2027 or 2028.

He was careful to frame the path as “food for thought,” not a prediction.

Still, the timing has caught traders’ attention. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level historically associated with stronger market regimes, while prediction markets cited in the discussion now assign roughly a 40% chance of bitcoin’s price reaching $100,000 this year.

The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Under Pressure

Not everyone agrees on how the recovery fits bitcoin’s price traditional cycle.

Layah Heilpern noted that BTC peaked on Oct. 6, 2025, roughly in line with the four-year cycle pattern. Previous major bitcoin bottoms arrived around 12 to 13 months after their respective peaks, potentially placing the next cyclical low between early October and mid-November.

“[It] could be different this time, but it’s not over until it’s over,” Heilpern wrote.

Historical comparisons support the timing argument. The 2013 cycle took about 406 days to reach its final low, while the 2017 and 2021 cycles required roughly 364 and 376 days, respectively.

Glassnode, however, sees an important difference.

“The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this BTC bear,” the analytics firm said. Unlike previous downturns, which were more than twice as deep by this stage, bitcoin’s price remains roughly 30% below its peak and is recovering.

Glassnode Data Shows Selling Remains Controlled

Onchain behavior is also less aggressive than at previous market tops.

Glassnode data show net realized profit around levels last seen in late 2023, well below the heavy profit realization associated with prior euphoric phases. Recent rallies have also produced lighter selling than comparable moves during 2024 and 2025.

Short-term bitcoin holders are largely back in profit, but realized gains remain contained. That suggests investors are distributing coins gradually rather than rushing for the exits.

For crypto markets, that is constructive as long as fresh demand continues absorbing the supply.

$100K Is Back on the Radar, but Timing Is the Risk

Other cycle roadmaps circulating among traders envision a more aggressive advance, including a potential peak near $190,000 early next year, followed by distribution and another bear-market phase.

Those paths remain scenarios, not forecasts.

The more immediate question is whether bitcoin can hold above its long-term moving average and convert the mid-$80,000 range into support.

If profit-taking stays controlled and new demand persists, the path toward $100,000 becomes easier to argue. If the older four-year cycle reasserts itself, however, bitcoin may still face one final test before the market can declare the downturn over.